Home Investment Wall Street Bet | How Likely is a Red October Following a Red... InvestmentWall Street Bet [WallStreetBets] | [Data Visualization] How Likely is a Red October Following a Red September? By thecheese27 - 6 22 Facebook Twitter Pinterest WhatsApp See Also (Article Bottom) RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR [WallStreetBets] | The Boom Of Big Five DD [WallStreetBets] | Prusa vs Makerbot. The nerd war of 2014. [WallStreetBets] | A Proposed Mathematical Definition of a Wall Street Bet 22 COMMENTS Red October standing by. Reply TLDR. The market is random. Reply Im thinking long slow bleed Reply Well without Sean Connery anymore, probably not much of a threat. Reply [deleted] Reply We’re on the road to brighter hell.. Reply This is not a normal time in the market ffs Reply It almost sounds like you’re hunting for Red October… Reply I mean today is the 1st of October and the market did great. Maybe everything will fine. Reply Taper vs no taper talk, rising vs stabilized inflation, more supply chain bottlenecks/labor shortages?, oil stays in 70s or rises to 80+, vaccine still effective or 3rd shot needed, winter Covid/variants, Merck pill effective? Blackouts/ Nat gas / energy shortages/prices? Proposed higher cap gains/Corp taxes or just bluffing… China… Direction of USD.. So much is at a tipping point in Q4.. things could pivot either way, but for sure I’d say a ton of volatility.. Reply I think people adding up all of the issues right now and saying it’s not a normal economic period are right that it’s not a normal economic period, but by those measures, last year wasn’t a normal economic period, as well. Inflation: It’s actually declining month over month, whereas last October it was increasing. People forget that the inflation metrics they cite are YoY and while inflation is in the zeitgeist now, it was also in place last year. The debt ceiling: This is an actual problem, that could create a 2018-style long bleed. I’ve worried about this, but the government funding deal shows that there is likely a positive outcome. It represents some degree of blinking on the parts of those opposed to raising the debt ceiling, so I think we can breathe a sigh of relief. COVID: The economic data is much better than last year, and as much as it disappoints people who hoped for a full recovery by now, the soft re-opening from delta is still a relative increase in economic activity that is likely to get better as time goes on. We’re in the upswing. Vaccines *do* work, and that’s in the data. It just takes time for the end of a pandemic to happen. China and supply issues: These concern me, and I think we’re looking at supply issues for 6 months to a year, and this will cause some issues… but we have to remember that this is all due to an increase in overall demand and largely related to issues that specifically affect China. This isn’t to say there won’t be some problems from this, but we’re not talking a 2008 larger systemic issue that is global. There are solutions to these problems that are in-play, and they’re happening in an environment of very high demand for goods and services relative to last year… these are ultimately bullish, growth environment factors. Taxes/Taper/Rate increases: Will create a short term correction when they happen, but they’re not unexpected and the impact of tax increases to corporations are not going to really effect growth the way that people think. Macroeconomically and historically, the reality is the opposite of what people think it will be with increased taxes creating more local capital velocity which means more revenue, more profits, and more growth opportunity. Companies are good at finding various ways to create efficiency in pricing, and Jeff Bezos getting some extra taxes won’t impact the value of Amazon. The stock taxes proposed, like the estate tax on unrealized gains and the removal of the in-kind ETF tax break will largely have a null effect because the people concerned about them aren’t taking into account how much they don’t matter or aren’t available to consumers. This is a bigger topic, but fears over these taxes are nothingburgers once you introduce human behavior into the mix. Worker shortage: Adjusted participation has close to returned to normal, with the exception of about a million workers based on the last data and it’s probably tightened since then (most people getting higher numbers aren’t accounting for historical reduction from baby boomers retiring since 2000 and pandemic mortality) and these forces are due to high demand, an expansion of higher pay work in the country post-pandemic due to supply chain issues, and come with higher overall wages which is an offset to inflation pressure, reducing the likelihood of a crash. This is actually a good signal even if it’s a problem for insolvent businesses. Almost all of the things people cite as problems are artifacts of positive economic growth. In the end, I expect October to be volatile, but I think there’s little reason to automatically assume that it will be blood red… it depends on a number of factors. Me? I’m keeping a close eye on things and playing a bit conservative with my portfolio right now, but I’m looking for the broader entry point in the coming month, because I think this could look a lot like last year… but I also think human psychology dictates that we could have a short red period because the fundamentals matter less than people wrongly believing we’re in a crash in the short term. In the long term, all of these forces will actually bring people to the market. Reply Did you just say we’re not in the middle of an economic crisis? Did I readeth properly with mine eyes? Reply TLDR: it’s called OCTOBULL. Reply After a global pandemic has shut down supply chains and labor markets? Anything is possible. Reply Hey you have a nice weekend too homie Reply Past performance don’t guarantee future results. Reply Let me ask my wife’s boyfriend to see if she’ll have more red this month Reply I’m a little slow I guess. There have only been 30 September’s and 30 October’s over the last three decades, so why are there 400-500 data points on the graph? Reply ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4968) Reply Developing situations aren’t always clear except in hind sight. Taking your conclusion in the other direction – if we are in the midst of a developing crisis then the chances of a red Oct after a red Sept is almost 100%? Reply SPY 405 Reply Uptober Reply LEAVE A REPLY Cancel reply Please enter your comment! Please enter your name here You have entered an incorrect email address! Please enter your email address here Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. 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