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31 COMMENTS

  1. This didn’t outline how I could lose my life savings in the last 4 hours on a Friday. What a fucking waste.

  2. jeremyroastscoffee

    so… should I buy next day deep OTM puts or calls?

  3. OriginalSleep386

    Where’s the TLDR?

  4. There’s nothing here to figure out. It’s momentum and memes.

  5. anachronofspace

    ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4887)

  6. Let me if I get this right. Probability of the trade working (witch is 100% because I’m always right. I mean I thought I was wrong once but realized I was mistaken) X Payout (witch is always ♾️ because of my deep OTM calls/puts) = % Portfolio to bet. Nah fam, all in all the time is the way to go.

  7. Not sure this works on Cannabis stocks.

  8. What kind of sample size defines a Wallstreet bet?

    Edit: on a more serious note, can’t you not use KC because the expected return on the upside is unknown?

  9. I know all the morons just skipped your math but it’s actually a really funny little proposal!

  10. Pablo_EscaGAYbear

    OP I want to punch you really fucking hard right in the middle of your face!

  11. it’s bulllshit how you need to pass like three calculus classes and quantitative methods of business to get a business degree from a state college

  12. The concavity is wrong—the fall doesn’t start slow and then become quick. It’s best represented with an exponential distribution with negative parameters to show decay (e.g. sharp decline that asymptotically reaches zero value). This can repeat with a sharp spike upward and another sharp decline before flatlining (the sharp spike upward is due to apes banding together for a day to two months). My autistic opinion.

    Seriously though well thought out analysis but a wasted effort when you could be applying your analytical skills on getting clean drinking water for Flint, MI.

  13. i wonder who read the longest before giving up, I got 4 or 5 paragraphs in, something about holding til things expire like a boss. Did anyone read further than me?
    If not then I win the internet today?

  14. Burry likes this post…

  15. OP just went Rainman on this equation. Deserves the WSB peace prize

  16. Bro solve for w numerically. If p is known adjust w for a fixed value of b (guess) until the equation is satisfied.

  17. Puts on public education cuz my ass just want to go down to the comment section.

  18. RedditSucksDickNow

    Anytime a wager is made, putting at risk more than the kelly criteria dictates, a wall street bet has been made.

    QED::

    I don’t know why you’re going through all this elaborate math (other than to look smart to a bunch of retards); the hard work has already been done for over a half century.

    Maybe you could redeem yourself by providing a few sold references to mathematical texts that cover parimutuel betting. I haven’t been able to find any (I just assume this is because the mathematics involved are simple enough to cast into the metal gears of mechanical computing devices used at race tracks around the world starting in the late 1800s). Still, I’d like to see something written down that I might be able to apply to the options market. It is my personal opinion that gama squeezes are little more than parimutuel odds adjustment to match same-strike open interest spreads in the options market.

    This paper is over two decades old (before research papers were walled off; RIP Aaron Swartz), so, obviously people have been thinking about this:

    https://web-docs.stern.nyu.edu/salomon/docs/derivatives/S-DRP-01-16.pdf

  19. This is absolutely golden

  20. Use a root finder to solve the equation to arbitrary decimal accuracy. You can do this on Wolfram Alpha or Mathematica by using NSolve[].

  21. When can you give a guest lecture???

  22. So I used my newly acquired statistical acumen I made my first bet at a race track. At the first turn the jockey fell off the horse. My wife placed a bet because she said the horse looked at her and the horse won.

  23. This guy called us Autist. Listen he knows what he is talking about

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