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51 COMMENTS

  1. If you were Elon, would you sell your stock?

  2. bro, just ride the wave. the bubble will blow but maybe only in 2 years…

  3. playoutsideplay

    If I were you AND I loved being poor, I would sell tesla.

  4. Toyota is producing gas cars, which is going to be on its way out. Just sell half your Tesla holdings and sit on the decision for a few days. You may realize you’ve made a mistake and buy back in. Or if you truly think it’s a bubble, then sell the rest. Easy.

  5. Multiple trillions of capital is literally just sitting there around the world looking for an EV car company not run by a bipolar CEO.

    Rivian is a symptom of demand. Legacy car companies are too stupid to understand this.

  6. Tesla is way more than just EV’s.
    Environment, solar panels, solar batteries, chip design etc etc.

  7. But Tesla also got that creepy dancing robot coming out that people will program to give them handjobs so… The sky is the limit!

  8. Tesla marketcap makes total sense compared to RIVN

    besides Tesla isn’t just a EV company.

  9. TheRobinhoodTrader

    RIVN got my portfolio back to positive but couldn’t sell because of PDT. now with this crash I’m going to be back down a few thousand. 🙁

  10. Once the lock up period ends, insiders will be rushing to sell. If i was Ford i would sell their stake to shore up their own EV production and supply chain. Dont need a competitor taking maket share.

  11. Nonsheeple_Funnyluv

    Buy XOM, CVX. The EV bubble will burst. But not soon.

  12. Tesla’s car production for q3 is 240k. Annualized that’s almost 1mm.

  13. It’s a bubble that values solely EV companies like tech companies.

    VW sold more EVs that anyone else worldwide last year and so clearly have the concept, brand recognition and production capacity and yet are somehow mere fractions of what Tesla, Rivian etc are worth

  14. Nonsheeple_Funnyluv

    Sell the highs, buy the dips, but dont forget the taxes

  15. > Toyota’s production for 2021: 10 million cars Tesla’s production for 202: 240’000

    Toyota’s production is basically flat while Tesla’s is rapidly increasing. Right now their annualised production rate is around 1 million units, and with their new factories coming online they could realistically exceed 2 million by the end of next year.

  16. People just buying anything with EV in the description, and also anything perceived as “the future”. Kinda like 1999 where profits or even sales were not important. The most important thing was that they were going up….Until one day they didn’t.

  17. Hey guys did you know these EV tech companies have a way higher cap but way lower production than automakers?

  18. IDKWhoToPlayMan

    You can’t put a number on the desire to bring EV cars to be standard. No more gasoline engines. But yeah, if I didn’t buy in at 78$, I wouldn’t buy right now

  19. Critical-Series

    Whatever you do don’t try to short the bubble. Selling stock and locking gains is fine. This could go on for a long time

  20. Fisher has produced more cars than RIVN

  21. DstnyAwaitsCybrSpace

    How many “Tesla is overvalued” – posts must a community suffer from

  22. It’s speculation dood. Markets won’t make sense ever again

  23. I would have already sold my Tesla shares during last years run up. If I had any left (I wouldn’t) I’d be selling even harder during this run up.

    The stock price is totally out of whack.

  24. Tesla might be overrated but EV in general is no bubble when you take into account that more and more countries will outright ban Internal combustion engine cars or heavily penalize having those.

    By 2027 I think my country will no longer make it possible to register ICE cars, not even secondhand ones.

    And as of now if you buy an EV you:

    – are eligible to a subsidized refund of a certain percentage with I think a cap of 3000€

    – pay no VAT on the car or pay only 6% VAT if I remember correctly. Regular VAT on a car is 21%

    – are exempt from the first time registration tax when you buy and register your car in your name

    – are exempt from the annual road tax

    More countries will take these measures and more car manufacturers are going to switch to producing EV cars

  25. Interesting-Pin-9815

    Rivian and lucid are to be sceptical of.. Where as Tesla has the infrastructure and technology backing its pricing though a good amount of it is in belief in the company. Tesla is not an auto manufacturer by conventional means but a technological investment more so

  26. Whobroughttheyeet

    I would also look into not just the number of units sold but the profits from the sale of each unit. I’m not here to say Tesla isn’t over valued but they get more profit from each unit sold then let’s say Toyota. I know these numbers arnt right but I think ford was shooting for like a 3 or 6% profit while Tesla was making 30% from each car sold. Also look at the debt each company has an how much debt they will need to take on to transition to EV from ICE. I think these items are why we are seeing EV focused companies see higher interest. Rivian is a joke though. They are more then NIO. Nio has sold a car while rivian is still figuring out their production line.

  27. IAmInTheBasement

    I don’t have to really even have an argument here because you’re just so wrong on the face of it. Toyota did 7.5M units in all of 2020. They’ve done 3.9M units in 1H 2021. Your 10M unit claim is a farce.

    Tesla’s on track to hit somewhere in the 900k units this year. But more importantly, what’s Toyota’s production targets for 2022? 2023? 2030?

    ​

    How’s the BEV plan coming along?

    Answer: Poorly. They pretty much don’t have one. They’re investing in H2 and Hybrids because they didn’t plan ahead and build BEV factories, design the cars to use someone else’s batteries, or purchase large enough battery contracts.

    Also, everyone only looks a # of cars sold and calls it a day. Morons.

    You have to look at the ASP of all those cars and then look at margins. Tesla has higher ASP and margins.

    Let’s look at how that plays into things.

    [https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/gross-margin](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/gross-margin)

    vs

    [https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TM/toyota/gross-margin](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TM/toyota/gross-margin)

    TSLA TTM revenue = $46.85B (~810k units TTM) vs Toyota TTM Revenue = $290.23B (8.4M units TTM)

    So their revenue is only 6.2x higher for having sold 10.3x as many units. And their profit per car is lower too. So as Tesla grows it’s own sales faster than the global auto market expands, those sales for Tesla are going to be loses for other companies, Toyota included. Someone will choose a 3 over a Camry. A Y over a Rav4.

    So when Tesla has grown to ~5M units a year, they’ll be making more money than Toyota ever has. When Tesla grows to 10M a year, they’ll not only be rolling in dough, but will have eaten the lunch off of so many other auto’s plates. TESLA DRINKS YOUR MILKSHAKE, TOYOTA!

    Tesla to 20M units by 2030-32.

  28. The problem is that fundamentals don’t drive the stock price, its all down to buying and selling volume.

    The smart money saw tesla was overvalued but the ones that liked the brand or its disruptive potential kept pouring money into tesla, eventually causing a squeeze and basically turned tesla into a money printer.

    Since that wave of investors purely saw tesla as a free atm, they’ve now put all new EV companies in that bracket with little to no knowledge on the existing giants and don’t pay any attention to how big the competitors are or the growth opportunities vs competitors.

    It’s a culmination of young people being able to trade easily with a herd mentality and pure momentum. There has never been such a disconnect between true value and market value and in my opinion, its all because of robinhood opening the floodgates for mobile trading. This generation would normally have zero interest in investment but saw videos online of insanely lucky and risky call options.

    Honestly, until everyone of the new crop of traders get badly burnt, this disconnect will only grow stronger.

  29. Ambitious_Relief_151

    Clown market will continue to clown market till it bursts

  30. Because the market is a casino. Don’t waste your energy with logic.

  31. Thinking logically is where you’re going wrong. Investors in these EV companies don’t care about logic, they care about the hype and excitement.

  32. Another IPO of an electric and solar car startup is already up 90% today . Check out Sono Group .. The ticker is SEV .. I got 100 shares and paper handed it at 50%

  33. All of them (the new eVs including Tesla)are overvalued. It’s the way things work when investor FOMO is at an all time high.

  34. I’ve sold off all electric vehicle stocks. It’s a bubble.

  35. Tesla has a ROIC comparable to most tech companies, and this continues to improve QoQ. The level of profitably we see in their cars is unlike anything before, and it will only get better with better manufacturing ability. This is their moat. They are also still growing at 50%. What other company with that much revenue grows at 50%? When people say Tesla should be valued like a tech company, this is really what they mean. There have also been massive price increases just this year which go straight to the bottom line. This company is going to have comparable revenue and operating margins to Amazon in just a few years. That’s being conservative. Note how I dont need to mention anything about FSD or robots.

    Rivian has not sold a single car and we have yet to see how well they execute mass production.

    They are not the same.

  36. I’ve been waiting for this supposed Tesla crash for almost 2.5 years now. I’ll keep buying calls.

  37. It’s not about how many cars they produce vs how many others are producing. Its not even about the cars. People hear GM / Toyota they think “cars”. When people hear Tesla they think “future”. In people’s minds, Tesla fits perfectly into the sci-fi model of the future portrayed by movies. Futuristic transportation and futuristic energy. They could sell exactly 0 zero cars and still be trading at unreasonable multiples. Its the story we tell ourselves and Tesla fits into it pretty well. It’s also why GM / Toyota will never be worth as much. The narrative just doesn’t support it.

  38. Speculation is more profitable than value today

  39. Tesla is more than cars.. to elaborate: they sell solar energy, power walls, etc… cars aren’t their only line of income.

  40. But how many of those little solar tiles my wife’s boyfriend installed is Toyota going to sell?

  41. Nokia didnt catch up to samsung. Not all companies adapt to changing markets well.

    Id be comparing forecast earning of both companies to gage value.

    Market cap is just cost per share times supply. Price historically was affected by fundamentals but nowadays a lot of newbies invest for other reasons such as pop culture. This would only happen at the top of a bubble. Hysteria is probably being marketed by large hands selling their bags to you before the crash.

    Same thing happened in the 1929. Everyone thought they were genius til that point.

  42. ContrarianThinking

    Rivian is just another overpriced IPO that falls on it’s face a few days after going live.

  43. Took my lcid profits this morning at 55, pretty thrilled about that. I’ll buy back in at 25

  44. Tesla is probably the least retarded though. Their forward p/e is only 100 so they are pretty fairly valued. Definately think you should try shorting them though since the loss porn could be glorious.

  45. The perceived leaders of the dotcom bubble AOL and Yahoo are now failed enterprises. But several others did survive and new iterations of the concepts have proved successful.

    Will there be any successful EV companies in the end? History says yes. But they may not be the leaders of the day. Google was just on the drawing board during the dotcom bubble. But now it is the internet.

    Are EV stocks overvalued currently? It appears that some are ahead of themselves, but many others can be considered undervalued.

    Are EV stock values overextended like dotcom valuations were? Not even close.

  46. weaponisedherpes

    You’re living in a fairytale land where how a business performs is in any way related to stock price.

  47. Tesla is a beast that’s bound to keep growing, but I do believe we’re in an ev bubble right now, and many of these ev stocks (Rivian and Lucid) are ridiculously overvalued. Their valuations are based on the potential output in the future. It’s a bunch of hype that’s driving up these stock prices. If you’re in it because you have a strong conviction for the company, then ride the wave. If you’re in it for the short-term gains, then get the hell out of there.

  48. I think I spend the whole week thinking about this and I can only include that Tesla so far is way too overvalued. Also looking the arguments given in this thread:

    Few thing in defence of Teslas valuation:
    – they don’t have the legacy costs of established car manufacturering. No huge costly assembling halls, no pensions for the huge payroll of legacy manufacturers.
    – they produce cost efficient. Whereas legacy car manufacturers take about 30 hours on average, Tesla does it in 10.
    – they kept on selling in China, even though the Chinese government is very cautious when it comes to Tesla.

    But:
    The valuation is now 2 million usd per car produced. Tesla would need to ramp up its production to such a degree that would be almost impossible.
    – counter argument in thread: Tesla has an image of being in the future. Although that is definitely true for now, the law of diminishing values also apply in culture. In consumerism, distinction is key. If everybody is driving a Tesla, that coolness (as the kids say these days) will dissappear.
    -counter argument: Tesla is not a car manufacturer, but a tech company. Also very true, but I can’t see how Tesla would close that gap of 1.9 million dollars in the sale of software.

    I could be very wrong here.

    I could also not have posted this here, but now I can sleep better

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