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37 COMMENTS

  1. When the printer stops and the rates go up, it’s the end.

  2. Maybe gay bears are planning an orgy

  3. 🧢🧢🧢🧢🧢🧢🧢🧢🧢🧢

  4. Imtradingthedayaway

    Over leveraging HF

  5. What brought down the dotcom bubble was pretty simple selling to pay for taxes. If you look at the chart April 14th is where the market began it’s swan dive in 2000. Bitcoins already doing it. Selling now and then people get their tax bills. Selling begets selling!

  6. My portfolio already crashed (OTC, Small Cap Tech Stocks). 42% down.

  7. When everyone leveraged to the tits

  8. Over leveraged and shorted to fuck. SEC actually starts clamping down on all of the manipulation fuckery, so the cunts blow it up trying to cover their asses.

  9. I heard something about evergrande, a certain stock with idiosyncratic risk that’s being drs’ed hard, and something about firms like Goldman Sachs with 200 to 1 asset to derivatives ratios.

    Anyways, given this stuff, I’m thinking to play this market, it’s smart to be retarded, so I’m getting jacked to the tits on Jan 14 RIVN 100 calls

  10. HeadWalrus_BodyCLion

    Easy:

    Hi Tina (There is no Alternative), I’d like you to meet my new girlfriend Taylor (There are decent Yields with Lower Overall Risk)

  11. P4perH4ndedBi4tch

    I hope there’s a big crash in August

  12. The vast majority of the stock market is owned and controlled by a very small number of people. It can’t really “crash” per se, as much as there can be a 10-20% slide that makes retail want to sell. Jeff Bezos doesn’t care if the market “crashes”

  13. your instinct here is correct. “crash” is a gross exaggeration.

    monetary policy is tightening. that tends to generally deflate assets and also cause a value rotation between different asset classes as well as within those classes

    that said, some of the extreme risk assets tend to deflate at a much greater rate, as the inverse of their performance under loose monetary conditions

    actual crashes are caused by contagion risk. declining asset prices cause liquidity to dry up and uncertainty to increase. this in turn lowers the value of assets again in a vicious cycle of falling value -> increasing fear -> falling value

    as of right now there are no reasons to be overly concerned with contagion risk. however, you really cant know how fucked things have gotten under the hood until monetary policy starts squeezing everyone who was partying under loose monetary policy

  14. Tasty-Jacket6432

    A lot of people not ever having traded during a bearish market might get shaken out. I already took some ridiculous losses as a new investor

  15. Do we not still think Evergrande will be the catalyst?

  16. michelepiserchia

    there will be chain reaction when something will trigger the stock price deflation

  17. gncRocketScientist

    inflation is making stable long term investments 🗑️. big money needs those to at least have a shot at breaking even. current conditions make that unlikely. if they go to cash hoping for a fire sale in the near future, that exact action would cause the crash

  18. China tries to lockdown omicron … so it’s neverending lockdown there … Should be Bad for worldeconomy

  19. No one knows if and when the market will crash, we have macroeconomic data that tells that the economy is looking good at the moment, consumer spending is at all time high in USA. Producer price index in China went down in November for the first time in 24+ months, if the results of December are positive this can signal that inflation topped, because China PPI is highly correlated with Consumer price index in USA. Knowing so, there’s a high probability we’re going trough a short cycle of economic expansion and market going higher due to astonishing results for companies in 2021 and a surprisingly good Q1 2022. The problem comes after Q1, if economy recovered they can hike rates, meaning that debt will cost higher to repay, profits will shrink and earnings will be worse than expected.
    Unless there’s a bad catalyst and a rug pull I’m not worried, just be careful from March, market already knew in December about rate hikes so the first two can be priced in

  20. The fundamental reason for a market decline is tightening Fed conditions done by raising the Federal Funds rate. The 2007-08 housing bubble crashed because the Fed raised the Federal funds rate to a level that unconvered financial weakness. Keep in mind, the FED also created the housing bubble in 01-03 by keeping rates low after the dotcom crash.

    The Fed in this case may have made a policy error by doing TOO much QE and leaving rates too low for too long in 2021. They’re trying to play catch up. The weakest companies and borrowers will get lit up as rates rise. The companies that were valued based on concepts/fluff and ZERO profitability will suffer the most. Even stronger companies will have to pay more to service their debt. This is where VALUATIONS matter and debt levels matter.

    The bottom line Is the Fed is DISCOURAGING speculation and PUNISHING the weakest companies and weakest borrowers (SOFI, HOOD, AFRM, PYPL etc).

  21. todayilearnedred

    The fall of the first small HF for overleveraged loans. The small will collapse the middle than the big ones and so on… Remeber the collapse of Archegos 2021?

  22. Haven’t we been crashing since November????

  23. I don’t think a crash will happen. Probably the opposite but won’t have crazy gains again tho

  24. Look at the S&P from 1960-1975. Not saying it will do the same thing, but conditions in the market are similar to that time frame.

    I’m guessing a 1929 crash won’t happen simply because market mechanics are different. We live in a world of smart phones and computers with instant trades and circuit breakers. Plus with all the money on the sidelines ready to buy the dip, a complete crash of 50%+ in a very short period of time seems unlikely.

    The most probable scenario (in my opinion) is a long period of range bound market prices that fluctuate between or slightly above/below previous highs/lows for several years.

    Instead of “The Big Crash” I wouldn’t be surprised to see “The Big Sideways” as the reality.

    The Fed will surprise people with their timing, scare the market, have a run down to the 400ema or close, long term investors will start salivating and buy the dip. The market will react to, and price itself in based on earnings performance and guidance with the new rates. This cycle will continue as some companies fare better than others. Winners will be crowned, losers will be drowned.

    TLDR: SPY 2022-2032 $320-$498

  25. Loose monetary policy over an extended period of time

  26. The crash will come when someone demands their money back – without getting it.

    When, where, who and why? I dunno, probably during some fancy pants meeting on wall street and one of the parts askes for a payment delay. The creditor says “shure buddy, no problemo!” And when the meeting is over creditor presses big red SELL-button.

  27. The majority of the “insane high P/E” companies have already crashed 50+%. Idk what kind of crash you’re expecting. Did you think quality companies like Microsoft were going to drop 80% or something?

  28. ShankThatSnitch

    A stock is usually priced forward looking. So people bid the price up with certain expectations that the stock will grow the business into that value. As long as the growth trend continues to meet or exceed expectations, the price can keep going up. But then the company falls short of their previous guidance, or even worse lowers growth expectations going forward. All of a sudden, that high PE that was pricing in a lot of future growth, is way more expensive than you thought it would be.

    A great example of this was DOCU. They had been posting massive growth, and then they missed by a lot in the last report, and the stock got nuked. Now expand this idea out across hundreds or thousands of companies because GDP growth slows a lot or even contracts, and the values start coming down all over the place.

    Now take into account that more margin debt is being used to buy stocks than ever, and by a long shot. Rising rates makes that margin more expensive, and your stocks start to lose value. You have to start to sell some positions. This puts more sell pressure, which unwinds more margin, and so on in a cascading effect.

    Why would GDP slow you ask? Cause we are going into a year where we are losing a $6 Trillion tailwind of stimulus and liquidity. People actually have to pay their mortgages and loans again, and price increases are squeezing people pockets, so they will have less to spend on things other than essentials.

  29. There’s not great metrics to back this up and just some thoughts I have – but when I look around as well as ask how others feel (some older people who describe they’ve never experienced anything IE covid&recovery like this before) I can’t help but get a bad feeling.

    There’s so much inflation not only in the US but around the world right now. How can every country just create currency to allow itself to buy more goods and services. This has to impact someone at the end of the day.

    Secondly, there’s something weird going on with jobs. Companies can’t hire people. Low paying jobs affected the worst. I eat out a lot, and the quality of low end service jobs is the worst I’ve ever seen.

    Lastly, consolidation – Are all of these workers getting a marginally better pay at FAANG? Is this happening to every job in the US? There’s so much consolidation going on right now.

  30. Least_Reveal_8684

    No market crash till 2024, don’t be intimidated!

  31. a reddit group called wallstreeeeetbets

  32. I think it will be student loans.

    Since you can’t file for bankruptcy on student loans, they’re probably really good collateral for banks or investment firms.

    But if interest rates go up too much on those loans, they become impossible to pay off and people will just stop paying them all together.

    If your collateral is no longer making payments, then it is downgraded in rating. If your collateral is downgraded in rating, then you might get caught in a margin call, if you get caught in a margin call you might have to liquidate your portfolio.

    Hope everyone is having a good sunday ❤

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